New data from Black Knight, Inc. (NYSE:BKI), suggests that at the current rate of reduction — and despite the fact that the national delinquency rate is now back to pre-Great Recession average — there will still be more than 1.5 million homeowners 90 days or more past due on their mortgages when forbearance expirations begin in September.

This is according to the company’s “first look” at June 2021 month-end mortgage performance statistics derived from its loan-level database representing the majority of the national mortgage market.

In addition, the company found that last week’s 1K decline was matched by a 2K increase in the number of active forbearance plans over the past seven days, leaving volumes essentially flat for the second week in a row. As of July 20, 1.86 million borrowers remain in COVID-19 forbearance plans.

This is important because it’s not yet clear how the end of forbearance will impact homeowners who haven’t been paying their mortgages due to complications caused by COVID. Servicers are likely to have their hands full as they struggle to get borrowers back on track, while federal regulators watch from the sidelines.

Black Knight said serious delinquency rates remain elevated by more than a full percentage point across all 50 states, with Hawaii and Nevada serious delinquency rates remaining elevated by 3.4 percentage points

Though serious delinquencies remain significantly elevated, the share of mortgages in active foreclosure fell to yet another record low in June at 0.27%, the company said. But that could change quickly when foreclosure moratoriums end and borrowers exit forbearance.

Black Knight said it will provide a more in-depth review of this data in its monthly Mortgage Monitor report, which includes an analysis of data supplemented by detailed charts and graphs that reflect trend and point-in-time observations.

The Mortgage Monitor report will be available online at https://www.blackknightinc.com/data-reports/ by Aug. 2, 2021.

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