A new survey by Zillow showed that 60% of housing experts don’t believe the housing market is in a bubble, while 32% are still expecting a crash and 8% are just not sure.
The latest Zillow Home Price Expectations survey polled more than 100 experts from academia, government and the private sector to gather their opinions on the state of the housing market and future growth, inflation forecasts and recession risks.
The most popular reason the 60% gave was strong market fundamentals, including demographics, scarce inventory and shifting housing preferences, the survey said, followed by low credit risks due to sound loan underwriting and the overwhelming share of fixed-rate, fully amortized mortgages.
Another group of respondents rejected the term “bubble,” which implies a subsequent crash they do not believe is imminent, the survey said. For those who do believe we’re in a bubble, unaffordable prices and high mortgage rates were the main reason.
But even those who don’t think we’re in a bubble believe that there will be a recession, even if it’s short. The largest portion of the panel (45%) expects the next U.S. recession to begin in 2023, more than 2022 (30%), 2024 (8%) or 2025 and beyond (17%), the survey said.
The panel also forecasted higher home price growth for 2022 from 9% last quarter to 9.3% as demand stays strong.