We’re currently in a “turned-over” housing cycle, according to journalist Lance Lambert’s latest article for Fortune, which means the housing expansion is now in a downward slide. But it doesn’t mean that home prices will also fall. 

Moody’s Analytics predicts that 210 out of the country’s 414 largest housing markets are poised to see house prices decline over the coming two years, while 204 markets will likely see them rise over that time period, according to the article.

The forecast found The Villages in Florida poised to see the biggest drop in house prices, falling 12.8% between 4Q22 and 4Q24.

The others at the top of the list that could see large declines include 

  • Punta Gorda, Fla (-11.4% forecasted home price decline
  • Spokane, Wash. (-9.4%)
  • Cape Coral, Fla.(-9.4%)
  • Ocala, Fla. (-9.3%)
  • Lake Havasu City, Ariz. (-9%)
  • Fort Lauderdale (-8.6%)
  • Reno (-8.2%)
  • Missoula, Mont. (-7.7%)
  • Palm Bay, Fla. (-7.6%).

Despite these being many of the areas that saw the most home price appreciation over the past two years, they are “simply more vulnerable to a homebuyer revolt,” Lambert says, adding that Florida markets could tip into the oversupply category because of the increased homebuilding. 

Albany, Ga. Is at the top of the markets poised to see the biggest increase in house prices over the next two years, with the forecast predicting prices will rise 9.8%. 

Following Albany, according to the analysis, are 

  • Casper, Wyo. (8.0% forecasted house price growth)
  • New Bern, N.C. (7.6%)
  • Rocky Mount, N.C. (7.3%)
  • Augusta, Ga. (7.2%)
  • Hartford (7.1%)
  • Columbus, Ga. (6.6%)
  • Farmington, N.M (6.5%)
  • Valdosta, Ga. (6.4%)
  • Danville, Ill. (6.3%)

Lambert says the main reason for certain markets being vulnerable to falling prices is the pandemic housing boom, which saw the U.S. housing market go from affordable to “historically unaffordable” in two years.

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