Economists have consistently said that nationally, the U.S. housing market, despite record-breaking home price hikes, is likely not going to see a bubble like the one that drove the 2008 crash.
However, regional markets could be different, according to Fortune. “Some regional housing markets could be in full-blown housing bubbles. At the very least, many markets are priced exorbitantly compared to what local income levels can support,” the article said, citing an analysis by the Real Estate Initiative at Florida Atlantic University, where researchers each month calculate how overpriced or underpriced home prices are in America’s 100 largest housing markets.
The March data found “every one of America’s 100 largest housing markets overpriced relative to what economic fundamentals in the market would support,” including 44 markets overpriced by at least 30% and 13 overpriced by at least 50%. Unsurprisingly, the data showed the most overpriced markets— Boise (by 75%), Austin (66%), Ogden, Utah (63%), Las Vegas (60%) and Atlanta (60%)—were those that had an influx of recently-unchained remote workers who picked up and left more expensive cities during the pandemic.
Moody’s Analytics Economist Mark Zander told Fortune that he didn’t foresee a housing bust over the coming year, but “overvalued” housing markets could see home prices fall 5% to 10% over the next 12 months while national home price growth flatlines to zero.